(English follows Japanese)
東京ミッドタウン、丸ビル、ららぽーと、ダイヤモンドシティ。。。大型商業施設のオープンが相次ぐ。都心の地価高騰、用地不足から商業施設は郊外シフト傾向にあるものの、出店数は依然多い。開発側の立場に立てば、長年の不況トンネルを脱出した今、商業施設の開発を急ぐことは理解できる。だが、消費者の立場で見ると、モノやサービスの供給増に対して消費意欲が追いつかず、「肉離れ」をおこしているような印象を拭えない。
肉離れの原因の一つは、十分な集客力を発揮できるテナント店舗が限られ、結果的に商業施設間の差別化ができず、新たな消費需要を掘り起こせていないことにある。これは欧米の商業施設にも同じ事が言えるが、違いは、欧米では主要な商品、サービス、価格帯ごとにカテゴリーキラーと言われる代表ブランドや店舗があり、フロアマップを見れば概ねショッピングプランを立てられるのに対して、日本は１つの商業施設内に同じような商品を売る店舗が細々と乱立しているため、どこで何を買えばよいのか極めて分かりにくいことだ。一見選択肢が多くて良いように見えるが、商業施設内で既に供給過剰になっている商品やサービスも多い。
もう一つの原因は、もっと根源的なもので、一般家庭での消費意欲が臨界点に近づいていることにある。中でも、モノに対する消費意欲は顕著にその傾向が見られる。富裕層による高額消費はごく一部のブランドやサービスのみに費やされるものであり、団塊世代による孫への投資も一過性の現象だと思われる。元来新しいトレンドや消費を牽引するはずの若年層の人口は減少し、可処分所得の高い中高年層はモノに飽きはじめている。洋服や家電製品を衝動買いした後、帰宅して収納いっぱいの衣類や置き場所のない部屋を見た途端後悔したという人も少なくないだろう。さらに、傷んでもいない洋服やまだまだ使える家電を廃棄しなければならない瞬間は罪悪感に苛まれる。
ミッドタウンに押し寄せる人の波を遠目に見ると、一瞬、日本人の消費パワーに心配は無用かと思ってしまう。だが、その人並みに近づくと、あちらこちらで中国語が聞こえる。やはり日本における消費構造は目に見える形で変化しているのだ。
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From Tokyo Midtown, the new Shin-Marunouchi Building, to Lalaport, Diamond City, Japan is in a midst of a development rush for large shopping complexes. While the number of shopping facility developments is reported to decline next year due to increases in land prices and a lack of land in prime locations, those developments in suburban areas will remain high. From the developers’ point of view, it looks like the right time to open new shopping facilities now that the economic perspective has finally turned positive after a long recession. However, this rapid increase in supply of goods and services seems to be causing a “muscle strain”, as Japanese consumers do not seem to be expanding their spending on goods and services as much as the supply affords.
One reason for this muscle strain is that the new shopping complexes are rarely creating new demand by practically offering the same shopping content as their neighbor shopping complexes do. This is often the case with shopping centers in other developed countries. However, the major difference between large Japanese shopping centers and those in the U.S.A. for example, is that there are few category killers in Japan compared to their American peers. Existence of fewer category killers in large shopping centers, in most cases resulting in a conglomerate of smaller, weaker brands and shops, often gives the visitors complexity and less efficiency in shopping. Although some may prefer more options for shops than what American shopping centers can offer, having to hop in and out of small shops for nearly the same products tires most consumers. In other words, many Japanese large shopping centers oversupply within themselves.
The other reason is rather fundamental. The average Japanese household has diminishing demands for goods. (Service demands are still on the rise). There are only a small number of brands and companies who can profit from new rich extravagance. Baby-boomers’ seemingly unlimited spending for their grandchildren will have only transient and limited effects on the overall Japanese economy. Diminishing population at younger age groups is likely to weaken creation of new trends and demands while older Japanese are getting tired of new products. Many adults have already experienced a situation where they bought new clothes or electronic appliances on a spur-of-the-moment decision, brought them home, and regret to see their small closet, living room or kitchen flooded with similar products. They are also developing sense of guilt when they have to let go of their “older” but perfectly usable products in order to make space for new ones.
A wave of people crushing into Tokyo Midtown may give you an idea that the concerns for Japan’s consumption power are proven groundless. However if you take a closer look at the crowd, you’ll find significant portions of the crowd from other Asian countries. The Japanese consumption structure is indeed changing.
